Texas's Isaiah Taylor loses the ball against Kansas Landen Lucas and Devonte' Graham during the first half of an NCAA men's college basketball game at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Tex., Monday, Feb. 29, 2016. RICARDO B. BRAZZIELL/AMERICAN-STATESMAN

BEVO BEAT

NCAA Tournament projections: Planting The Seeds (March 4)

Texas is borderline 5/6 seed in our weekend outlook.

Posted March 4th, 2016

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Texas's Isaiah Taylor loses the ball against Kansas Landen Lucas and Devonte' Graham during the first half of an NCAA men's college basketball game at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Tex., Monday, Feb. 29, 2016. RICARDO B. BRAZZIELL/AMERICAN-STATESMAN
Texas’s Isaiah Taylor loses the ball against Kansas Landen Lucas and Devonte’ Graham during the first half of an NCAA men’s college basketball game at the Frank Erwin Center on Monday, Feb. 29, 2016. RICARDO B. BRAZZIELL/AMERICAN-STATESMAN

The American-Statesman’s NCAA Tournament projections — called Planting The Seeds — have become among the best forecasters in the country and a popular feature in our newspaper.

As we move toward Selection Sunday on March 13, we update The Seeds more regularly, and you can often find them on our StatesmanU blog.

Today we’re presenting a different approach as we give you the latest heading into this weekend.

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Rather than placing the teams in regions, we’ll give you a look at exactly where we rate each team.

The entire seed list below is in order. So Kansas is our No. 1 overall team and Michigan State is No. 4. Oklahoma, the first team listed among the No. 2 seeds, is our No. 5 overall team.

Our No. 5 seeds are of particular interest. Texas A&M is the top 5 seed (17th overall), and Texas is the lowest 5 seed (20th overall). So the Longhorns are hovering between a 5 and 6 seed, and that falls in line with nearly every other major national projection.

Texas game at Oklahoma State tonight will not affect its seeding unless the Longhorns lose. That would be an awful defeat and send the Horns tumbling to possibly a 7 seed. A win keeps the Horns as a borderline 5 or perhaps 6 seed.

After each team’s name and record, you’ll see a series of three numbers. The first number is the team’s Ken Pomeroy Index, followed by the Jeff Sagarin computer rating and, lastly, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

There are more numbers we use, particularly a team’s record against the top 25, top 50, top 100, road record and overall mark in the last 12 games. But this will give you a pretty good idea of what we’re looking at.

The asterisk (*) indicates the team is a projected conference champion, receiving one of 32 automatic bids.

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1

Kansas * (26-4 / 1 / 1 / 1)

Villanova * (26-4 / 4 / 3 / 2)

Virginia (23-6 / 3 / 4 / 3)

Michigan State (25-5 / 2 / 2 / 15)

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2

Oklahoma (23-6 / 6 / 8 / 5)

North Carolina * (24-6 / 5 / 5 / 9)

Xavier (25-4 / 12 / 14 / 7)

Miami (24-5 / 10 / 9 / 6)

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3

Oregon * (24-6 / 18 / 24 / 4)

West Virginia (23-7 / 7 / 7 / 12)

Utah (23-7 / 25 / 22 / 8)

Indiana * (24-6 / 13 / 10 / 22)

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4

Kentucky (22-8 / 11 / 11 / 13)

Maryland (24-6 / 21 / 17 / 11)

Duke (22-8 / 17 / 13 / 14)

Purdue (23-7 / 15 / 12 / 18)

——————————–

5

Texas A&M * (23-7 / 23 / 21 / 20)

Iowa State (21-9 / 20 / 23 / 19)

California (21-9 / 22 / 25 / 16)

Texas (19-11 / 29 / 29 / 25)

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6

Arizona (23-7 / 16 / 15 / 27)

Iowa (20-9 / 19 / 19 / 28)

Baylor (21-9 / 26 / 26 / 24)

Wisconsin (20-10 / 27 / 30 / 31)

———————————

7

Seton Hall (21-8 / 28 / 35 / 34)

Saint Joseph’s (24-6 / 36 / 45 / 23)

Dayton (23-6 / 55 / 49 / 21)

Notre Dame (19-10 / 39 / 36 / 35)

———————————–

8

Texas Tech (18-11 / 37 / 42 / 26)

Wichita State * (23-7 / 8 / 20 / 43)

Colorado (21-9 / 63 / 51 / 30)

Southern Cal (20-10 / 51 / 46 / 36)

———————————

9

Vanderbilt (19-11 / 24 / 18 / 47)

VCU * (22-8 / 38 / 39 / 41)

Syracuse (19-11 / 40 / 38 / 52)

Saint Mary’s * (25-4 / 34 / 31 / 38)

———————————-

10

Butler (20-9 / 35 / 28 / 46)

Connecticut (20-10 / 32 / 34 / 50)

Providence (21-9 / 56 / 52 / 39)

Pitt (20-9 / 41 / 32 / 44)

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11

Oregon State (17-11 / 62 / 61 / 32)

Monmouth * (25-6 / 69 / 83 / 56)

Cincinnati (21-9 / 33 / 33 / 49)

South Carolina (23-7 / 58 / 54 / 54)

St. Bonaventure (21-7 / 74 / 75 / 29)

Tulsa (19-10 / 42 / 57 / 45)

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12

Temple * (19-10 / 89 / 89 / 57)

San Diego State * (22-8 / 44 / 50 / 48)

Valparaiso * (26-5 / 31 / 41 / 42)

Ark.-Little Rock * (27-4 / 53 / 74 / 51)

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13

Yale * (20-6 / 54 / 64 / 53)

Akron * (23-7 / 83 / 92 / 37)

Stephen F. Austin * (24-5 / 46 / 68 / 85)

Hawaii * (24-4 / 73 / 77 / 89)

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14

Hofstra * (22-8 / 80 / 99 / 58)

Stony Brook * (24-6 / 87 / 96 / 64)

Chattanooga * (26-5 / 108 / 109 / 61)

UAB * (25-5 / 104 / 100 / 75)

—————————————-

15

IPFW * (23-8 / 124 / 134 / 66)

Belmont * (20-10 / 129 / 125 / 83)

New Mexico State * (21-9 / 115 / 113 / 116)

Weber State * (22-8 / 132 / 138 / 138)

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16

High Point * (20-9 / 142 / 148 / 156)

Lehigh * (16-14 / 165 / 174 / 163)

Wagner * (21-9 / 163 / 193 / 184)

Florida Gulf Coast * (19-13 / 168 / 182 / 216)

Texas Southern * (16-12 / 174 / 197 / 201)

Hampton * (18-10 / 253 / 256 / 182)

Note: * indicates automatic qualifiers

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STILL IN THE MIX …

(in this order)

Gonzaga (23-7 / 30 / 27 / 62)

Florida (17-13 / 45 / 40 / 54)

Michigan (20-10 / 49 / 37 / 58)

Houston (22-8 / 50 / 56 / 74)

George Washington (22-8 / 68 / 60 / 60)

Ohio State (19-11 / 64 / 59 / 76)

LSU (18-12 / 78 / 71 / 86)

Alabama (17-12 / 88 / 86 / 63)

BYU (22-9 / 59 / 43 / 77)

Washington (17-13 / 67 / 65 / 78)

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