Mike Craven

Hookem.com staff

Column

Craven’s Corner: Backing the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl — plus prop bets!

Posted January 30th, 2020

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The Corner turned a profit in its first year. We finished the football season with a 69-60-4 record and hitting on future bets like Baltimore winning the AFC North and Memphis winning the AAC. Sunday’s Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs closes our year. Here’s a closer look at the game line, over/under and a few prop bets. 

A quick refresher: Betting looks difficult, but it is easy to grasp. A negative number denotes the favorite. If a team is listed with a plus number, it’s the underdog. We’re using Bovada.lv as our general sports book. Remember that lines fluctuate based on bets and are subject to change before kickoff.

Got it? OK, let’s make some money:

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will lead his team against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. (Colin E. Braley/The Associated Press)

The game

Chiefs -1.5 over 49ers: It feels like destiny for Kansas City head coach Andy Reid. No coach without a Super Bowl victory commands as much respect from players and fellow coaches than Reid, who lost in his lone opportunity in 2005 with the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s back, this time with Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback in football. The 49ers are a great team with throwback tendencies inspired by a solid running game and an elite defensive line. Still, Mahomes and the Chiefs offense look unstoppable. 

Under 54.5: The Super Bowl tends to be low scoring due to the pressures of the event and an extra week for defenses to prepare. San Francisco needs to keep the score low to win and running the ball lends itself to lower scores. Mahomes makes me nervous because the Chiefs are capable of scoring 30 points on any team. The 49ers, led by rookie defensive end Nick Bosa, will slow down Mahomes enough to keep the total under 55. 

 

The props: 

Puppy Bowl XVI: Team Ruff (+7.5) over Team Fluff. Nothing unites America quite like the adorable vigor of the annual Puppy Bowl. The action-packed cuddle affair is heaven realized on earth. Fluffy dogs shed too much for my liking, so we’re taking the grit and determination of the underdogs. 

National anthem length: Over 2 minutes (-230). Google was required for me to learn who Demi Lovato was, the singer for the national anthem. No need to rush off the stage in the biggest performance of your career, so I expect her to draw out some notes and reach two minutes. 

Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+115). Keep it simple, stupid. Those words from my grandfather are forever burned in my head. Follow his advice here and take the clear favorite to win the MVP unless you like the 49ers to win the game. George Kittle at +1000 is a solid bet for San Francisco backers.  

Sack or touchdown: What happens first? (Sack -120). Defenses tend to win the first quarter in big games and that forces me to lean toward a sack happening before a touchdown. Both defenses can get after the passer and Mahomes is susceptible to sacks when he scrambles. I expect both defenses to control the game in the first quarter. 

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