Tennessee forward Jasmine Jones (2) battles for loose ball with Texas guard Lashann Higgs (10) in the second first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, in Knoxville, Tenn. Texas won 64-53. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

BEVO BEAT Women's Basketball

Despite more success, Texas women have same probability to win title as men, says FiveThirtyEight

Posted March 14th, 2016

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On Sunday, Nate Silver’s statistical analytical website FiveThirtyEight, a byproduct of ESPN, reported that the Texas men’s basketball team’s probability of winning the national title was less than 1 percent.

That seemed a little fair considering the sixth-seeded Longhorns’ often times up-and-down 20-12 season.

But the Texas women’s chances have to be way better than the men’s after finishing  28-4 this year, right?

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Wrong.

FiveThirtyEight reports that the women’s team has the same odds, less than 1 percent, to win the title. The men’s team actually has a better chance to reach the Final Four than the women.

Why? Well, the women may be a No. 2-seed, but they’re in the University of Connecticut’s bracket. Yep, the 32-0 Huskies are at the top of the “Bridgeport” region, giving Texas just a 2 percent chance to win that possible matchup, reports FiveThirtyEight.

UConn has a 70 percent chance to win the tournament compared the men’s side where Kansas’ 19 percent is tops. Unlike the men, there are no other teams with a 10 percent or better chance to win the title.

And Texas shouldn’t feel too bad about this mathematical prediction. Of all the No. 2 seeds, only Maryland’s odds are better than 1 percent. The Terps have a 3 percent chance to win it all.

 

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