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Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians odds, picks and prediction

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The Seattle Mariners (31-33) kick-off a three-game set with the Cleveland Indians (32-27) at Progressive Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Mariners vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Seattle lost the rubber match of its series with the Detroit Tigers Thursday and is just 4-6 in the last 10 games, including a four-game series split at the Los Angeles Angeles and a home series loss to the Oakland Athletics.

Cleveland split a mini two-game interleague series at the St. Louis Cardinals with an 8-2 loss Wednesday and is just 5-5 in the last 10 games. The Indians won two of three games against the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox in that run.

Season series: Mariners lead 3-1.

RHP Justin Dunn makes his 10th start for the Mariners. He is 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 8 K in Seattle's 3-2 win over the Texas Rangers May 29.
  • Dunn is making his first start since returning from a stint on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation.

RHP Aaron Civale takes the rubber for the Indians. He is 8-2 with a 3.49 ERA (80 IP, 31 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 10-4, in 6 IP with 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K Saturday at the Baltimore Orioles.
  • Civale took a loss at the Mariners May 14 with 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Seattle's 7-3 win.
    • vs. Mariners on the current roster: 19 at-bats with a .211/.238/.632 slash line, 4/1 K/BB, 2 HR and 4 RBIs.

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Mariners at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Indians -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-140) | Indians -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Mariners 4, Indians 2

Money line (ML)

Dunn has done his thing against bad teams but has poor numbers against the good lineups he has faced.

For instance, Dunn's ERA vs. teams with a losing record is more than two runs lower against losing teams than it is against teams over .500. His WHIP is 1.02 against losing teams vs. 1.35 WHIP against winning teams, and he has a 12.0 K/9 vs. losing teams compared to a 6.1 K/9 against teams above .500.

While the Indians have a winning record, their lineup is in the bottom-10 of several advanced hitting categories such as WAR (27th), wRC+ (28th) and wOBA (26th).

Slight "LEAN" to the MARINERS (+125) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit because their First 5 Innings run line is a much sharper wager and Seattle's bullpen is pretty thin since the Mariners played Thursday. The Cleveland bullpen is well-rested after having an off-day Thursday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

GIMMEMARINERS +0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit based on the aforementioned rationale and Civale's numbers aren't as impressive when you look under the hood.

For example, Civale grades in the 30th percentile of opponent's expected wOBA, 20th percentile of opponent's expected slugging percentage, 11th percentile of whiff rate and 15th percentile of K%.

Also, the Mariners had the second-highest hard-hit rate of any of Civale's opponent's this season and they were squaring up his stuff nicely. Seattle's lineup put 45% of balls in play toward centerfield.

Furthermore, Civale has pitched against soft competition this season. Nine of his 12 starts came against teams with a losing record and the most earned runs he has given up in a game this season was against Seattle.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the UNDER 5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit. Despite knocking Civale's 2021 production down a peg, he's still the future of a Cleveland organization that routinely churns out Cy Young caliber pitchers and I expect Dunn to pitch a quality start.

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