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Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and prediction

Esten McLaren
Sportsbook Wire

The Toronto Blue Jays (51-48) return home for the first time since the 2019 MLB season to begin a three-game set against the Kansas City Royals (45-56) Friday. First pitch will be at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre in Toronto. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Royals vs. Blue Jaysodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Royals LHP Daniel Lynch (1-2, 7.88 ERA) makes the fifth start of his rookie season. The 24-year-old has allowed 14 ER on 23 H and 5 BB with 11 K through 16 IP. He has given up just one home run.

  • Went a season-high 8 innings Sunday against the Detroit Tigers and didn't give up a run on 5 hits and no walks with 4 strikeouts
  • Hadn't pitched in the majors since May 13 prior to the start against the Tigers

Blue Jays RHP Ross Stripling (3-6, 4.84 ERA) has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 80 IP spanning 16 starts and one relief outing.

  • Took a no-decision Sunday against the New York Mets with 1 ER on 5 H and no walks over 5 IP
  • Rates of exit velocity, hard contact and fly balls are all well above the league average

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Royals at Blue Jays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Blue Jays -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (+100) | Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Blue Jays 10, Royals 6

Money line (ML)

The Blue Jays (-225) lit up the Boston Red Sox for 13 runs Thursday in their final game before their long-anticipated return north of the border. It was the sixth time this month the Jays have put up 10 or more runs in a game. They lead baseball with a .785 team OPS and .192 ISO.

They're fifth with a .770 team OPS against left-handed pitching and the Royals are 24th with a .686 mark against right-handers.

Still, PASS on the steep -225 money line price for the highly motivated Blue Jays and back the run line for proper value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-120) will win this by 2 or more runs with a significant advantage in the batting splits and overall quality of offense.

Kansas City has a slight edge in the bullpen battle, but don't expect Lynch to have as strong of a performance as he had against the lowly Tigers last time out. Toronto will get to the Royals 'pen early.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 10.5 (-105) is a strong play. Lynch was a disaster on the mound before his midseason demotion and one good outing against the Tigers doesn't signal a turnaround.

Stripling had given up 10 home runs over his seven starts prior to Sunday, and he won't go unblemished at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

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