Hand out photo courtesy of the University of Texas Athletics Department of Coach Fred Akers. Received 09/25/07.

BEVO BEAT Football

Vegas bullish on Longhorns in 2017, sets 8 regular-season wins as bar

Posted July 10th, 2017


The Texas Longhorns are enjoying, we think, some preseason hype as many publications (including this one) have the Longhorns snapping one  of the worst win-loss stretches in program history and returning to football relevancy this fall.

[anvplayer video=”4063673″ station=”998254″]

Texas is No. 22 in the Statesman’s top 25 preseason poll and that follows many of the same rankings from other outlets.


How many games will they win? And do you like gambling on such things?

Well, the over-under of the Texas 2017 win total is eight. Yes, octo–8– four-plus-four. This is up from May when the number was 7.5.

Is eight games reasonable for a team that finished 2016 on a three game losing streak that included two home losses sandwiched between a loss in Lawrence, Kan.?

Yes? No? Maybe?

According to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, Texas is -110 on the over.

So if Texas, which has gone 5-7 two years in a row and went 6-7 in 2014, wins nine games, it would be the best season since 2012. Eight games would be the best since 2013. (Disclaimer: Texas fired Mack Brown after he went 17-9 his last two seasons. Since Texas has gone 17-21 since)

The best season ever for a Texas first-year coach is 11-1 in 1977 under Fred Akers, so if you’re betting the over know that you’re banking on Tom Herman to win more games than Darrell Royal did in his first season (six) and the same amount as Mack Brown (nine).

If he doesn’t, the worst first-year record since 1930 is 2-6-1 by the legend Dana X. Bible in 1937.

So what’s the average wins for a first year Texas coach since the 1890s? The answer is an average of 5.5 wins since 1894 with the highest win totals coming in Akers  (11) and Blair Cherry’s (10) first seasons.

News on Bevo Beat is free and unlimited. Access to the rest of Hookem.com is included with an Austin American-Statesman subscription in addition to Statesman.com and the ePaper edition. Subscribe today at statesman.com/subscribe.